Systemic Collapse & Emergent Economic Opportunities — Forsythe to 2030
Club of Brussels - “Wise Paper 5”
By:
- Kevin Jacquot
- Eugénie Bouillet
- Luc Paré
- Prof. Michel A. de Kemmeter
<Design by Michel de Kemmeter, 2016, is slightly too optimistic timing of emergence>
Opportunities offered by this “Wise Paper”, in summary
Some fundamentals by 2030 (amongst others)
Illustration of the Systemic Crisis Domino
1). Business “as usual”, or not ?
2). Punitive Ecology is not the solution
3). An example of legal framework to create systemic solutions
4). Desirable systemic approach
5). “Great Reset” or “Great Resign” ?
6). Make it fun, desirable and profitable
B- Shocks and emergent economic spaces for regeneration
1). Regenerate Environment & Good Food autonomy
2). Multiple Energies — Local Energy production, Multimodal mobility
3). Multifunctional Buildings — Eco-co-housing, smart renovation
4). Educate Healthy Jobs — Human regeneration, empowering job
5). Smart Resources — Local waste, C2C, water, resource management
6). Multiple Economies and currencies
7). Low Tech World — Low cost smart tech
8). Art of Managing & Governing, culture, art
C- Macro-scope: a projected scenario
D- Unity With Maximum Differentiation
APPENDIX 1 — French Living Paradygm
APPENDIX 2 : Meta Life Progress theory
Abstract
This is a comprehensive paper on how today’s and tomorrows’ crises are interconnected, and which emergent “virtuous” economic and societal opportunities they are “pushing up”, and approximately, when. It is a scenario which is by definition false, but intends to trigger entrepreneurs and changemakers.
This scenario is positioned in between “business as usual” and “revolutionary” scenarios, but we tried as much as possible to connect to reality, facts and figures, “hard” and pragmatic fundamentals.
We are talking about “economic spaces” that are mutating, changing, closing, and opening. Businesses too, and structures, activity areas.
There will be a time gap between the “collapse” and corresponding emergent economic space, because of “mourning” processes, and offer time for co-entrepreneurship of those new paradigm businesses and functionalities.
“Mystery guests” — called “black swans” — are probable, which are going to shift the scenario in either direction, but cannot be taken into account here.
Opportunities offered by this “Wise Paper”, in summary
→ Get systemic thinking and problem-solving on the map
→ Launch a collaborative platform for systemic solutions (Kairos Multisolutions)
→ Get territorial authorities in implementing test-cases on “Regeneration Islands”, real size sandboxes
→ Development of new approaches for business education, complexity management and territorial development
→ Development of new postures on co-entrepreneurship, management, future vision
→ Getting out of the idea that technology, transhumanism, speculation, will be the graal for transition — but, putting a reconnected humanity in the center of solutions and societal matters
→ Shift from frenetic consumption patterns, into regenerative behaviors, local, natural, regenerative
→ Update ancient wisdoms to apply to today’s challenges
→ Re-industrialisation, relocalisation, economic and social re-invention of the West
→ Rethink the notion of “professional training” and “work” , into a process to self-realization and societal progress
→ Identify major clusters of emerging potential to focus on with our companies and intelligences
Some fundamentals by 2030 (amongst others)
- Visible checkmate of european politics in dealing with multiple hypercomplex challenges (2025–2028)
- Check mate of UN to achieve UN SDGoals (2025)
- Total and absolute checkmate of the accumulation-based “extractive capitalist” model, on all fields (human, environmental, economical)
- ESG regulations (start in 2023)
- Psychological and mental overdosis, global burnout & global resign (2021)
- Sovereign debts (+30%) and massive bankrupcies (2008–2024)
- Food chain disruptions (2023)
- Energy costs rising (2022)
- Poverty rising, disruptions and social unrest (2022–2025)
- Corruption and political short term vision enhanced, and pointing to un-efficient and too expensive choices (2023) (vaccines, war industry, …)
- Loss of trust in political systems and governance (2023)
- Social unrest (2023)
- massive climate migration (2025–2030 and up)
- … and many more
Illustration of the Systemic Crisis Domino
<Mapping of challenges and emerging spaces, on www.7vortex.org by Club of Brussels exec training team, 2022>
Introduction
After having to deal with the Covid-19 crisis, it is now very clear that the many shocks and changes ongoing and upcoming, are systemic, interconnected. This means several areas of our lives are touched and shifted, and there are direct and indirect connections in between the subjects and functionalities touched by those crises. Unlike the “hole in the ozone layer” — which was a linear problem — where we just needed to change a single CFC molecule in the industry. Today we need a new kind of intelligence to deal with the challenges, starting with understanding what actually is going on for real.
This paper offers a beginning of systemic understanding and visualization, and conveys positive proposals, deciding on the opportunities that these interactions between expected crises conceal.
As in the first law of thermodynamics ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_law_of_thermodynamics), energy doesn’t get lost, it transforms. Every collapse “pushes up” a new economic space. They are visible, clearly, and scream for a new generation of entrepreneurs to valorize them. Even though it takes some time of chaos, entropy, before “the new” emerges clearly. Time to mourn an old situation, to get organized, and to show, share and communicate “the new”.
Like a fever that peaks and breaks just before the patient begins to recover, the multiple crises don’t have to be regarded as something negative. We can reframe them as a “good crisis” (Pigem, 2009) if we heed the clear signs that change and transformation are now inevitable and already on their way and come to see the converging crises as creative challenges to grow up and evolve to planetary consciousness (Designing Regenerative Cultures, published by Triarchy Press, 2016).
Anybody surviving shocks or crises, and growing as a person, will tell “it is the best thing that could happen to me”. One has to question behavior, purpose, priorities,… Well, it’s exactly the same for us as a society. We are in the middle of it: sharp questioning and refocus.
A- Introspection
1). Business “as usual”, or not ?
Between two opposite visions of the world (“The Wizard and the Prophet” from Charles Mann) exists a more pragmatic one welcoming efforts to reconcile “Business, Planet and People”. If so-called “Wizards” are too confident, we should ask them: “How on earth can we even imagine re-start business as usual, in destructive and extractive mode, with blind people — knowing what we all know by now ? Destroying the planet at high speed, considering people as disposable resources, putting them on stress and burn-out mode ? And by the way, not questioning business models and systemic risks attached to them, with short term management styles?” Very pragmatically, this is totally insane for those who do not understand the picture, and criminal for those who do know — especially for those who could change the world, but do not do anything about it, consciously.
On the other hand, the “Prophets” consider the collapse of the world as a foregone conclusion, limiting their efforts and their perception of the puzzle. Thus, we should ask them: How far away is the collapse situation? If we consider the “End of the world” as a systemic phenomenon, why is there no exhaustive description of the domino effect that links the wounds of the Earth, the pressures on living beings, and the serious crises that await our societies? Are we really questioning our understanding of the effects of crises on each other (explosive cocktail or damp squib)? This reconsideration is time eating, most give up. But resigning can’t be a solution…
The reason for this versus : we are wired in 2D.
We just need to switch to 3D.
We have several political “schools”:
- hard ecologists (“Greens”): massive degrowth
- hard liberals (“blue”): consolidate existing businesses
- socialists-communists (“Reds”): “protection” of people
- identitarian (“Browns”): withdrawal — communitarianism — populist
- value-based “religious”: dogma, humanistic values, abnegation and beliefs
What we propose is an approach which reconciles all of them: “Systemic Regeneration”.
Thus, doing much better with existing planetary resources (makes ecologists happy); simultaneously empowering people in their particular excellences, talents and uniqueness towards autonomy (makes socialists happy); with very performant, multiple cash-flow, systemic regenerative business cases, with new roles and jobs (makes liberals happy); last but not least, this can only work if analysis is done on identity, assets and resources, values of each unique person and community (makes the “populist” and “religious” happy). This is where “self-centered navel-gazing” (leading to survivalist and fascist/populist dynamics) evolves to “self-knowledge and thriving”.
We should all be happy enough with this reconciling approach.
Our holistic vision is inclusive and pragmatic, it shapes a sustainable world in which any community accepts the full range of efforts needed to elevate global society, which contributes to many positive impacts — and finally — global regeneration and thriving. The beauty is that many live examples already exist (mostly under the radar), and can be fully scaled.
2). Punitive Ecology is not the solution
Isolating oneself in measurements and diagnostics with a too specialized asset, remaining disconnected from one’s environment is not a long-term strategy as it can weaken communities (inbreeding: deficiencies). At the same time, reducing one’s consumption will reach limits and for many will lead to frustration and deprivation which will have undesirable effects.
Everyone must be able to flourish, which is not allowed by a fully punitive ecology.
Too often we are caught up in “dogmas” — and close ourselves off to new ways of creating value. The productivity of factors and resources is extremely poor. Only the work of making the economy more connected will make it 10 to 30 times more resource-efficient.
But the key… it has to start with personal regeneration and empowerment. We will not create anything of true value with “broken” burned-out, depressed, freaked out, frightened people.
Throwing guilt to anyone eating chocolate, tropical fruit, or taking a car, is turning the problem upside down. It should start with personal alignment and empowerment.
3). An example of legal framework to create systemic solutions
This idea of a framework that would allow the creation of long-term solutions with profound changes can be found in the work that the European Commission has been carrying out for years through the directives related to the declaration of extra-financial performance.
The European directives on sustainability risk have evolved in response to the various economic, social and environmental events that have confronted European and especially global society. Since the world commission of 1987 which saw the emergence of the definition of sustainable development (Brundtland, 1987) and the millennium summit of the United Nations in 2000 which defined the 8 challenges of the millennium that humanity had to fulfill, the European Union (EU) became aware that it was necessary to act at the level of the companies to adopt a more sustainable economy:
to increase transparency and to reveal company’s good and bad externalities in term of sustainability.
The EU, since 1992, has tried to develop policies in the field of promoting CSR practices within companies, notably through non-financial reporting. Non-financial reporting is a reporting concept specific to the European Union, which has characteristics of two reporting concepts: sustainability reporting (that which impacts the sustainability performance of companies) and integrated reporting (Unermann and Zappettini, 2014). The issue at the heart of the various non-financial reporting guidelines is the materiality principle, i.e. the requirements relating to the definition of the content of the reporting (tangible data, indicator monitoring), attesting that the company is attempting to mitigate its social and environmental impact.
In addition to being part of a climate and social emergency, these directives respond to a broader demand from economic and corporate stakeholders for greater clarity and transparency on non-financial data. Indeed, the investment decisions of shareholders is based on the accounting and non-accounting risk measure and information ( Veltri et al., 2020). That means that firms get an advantage to attract investors and answer to their shareholders expectations in publishing an qualitative environmental disclosure. This idea is confirmed by Baalouch et al, (2019, p.947) “who consider that information about GHG emissions is vital for the decision making of stakeholders”. They take into account non-financial information. That means more transparency from the firm and also more trust from stakeholders.
In order to bring more relevance, credibility and transparency to the non-financial reporting directives, the EU has committed to a thorough overhaul of the Non-financial reporting directive: Corporate sustainable reporting directive.
But, if we want to considerably move the lines — as changemakers — we will need more experimentation space. The existing laws and regulations of all kinds are putting obstacles in the way of paradigm shifting experiments and business cases.
Two options: (1) “legal exceptions”, or if impossible, go abroad. (2) try in countries with less regulations, in Asia, Africa or Latin America for example.
4). Desirable systemic approach
In our modern societies, problem-solving approaches are perceived more positively if they bring proven solutions, which is legitimated by the importance of being efficient.
And this is particularly adapted to many organizations where health depends on their optimal use of means (goods, cash, labor) and time to realize their job. However, the systemic issues that we are facing implies many improvements and some upper comprehension and knowledge efforts into companies, government as well as NGOs. Even if decision-makers shape sustainability plans, for most of them the same approaches are involved.
Systemic implies overtime solutions with built-in improvement, opposed to static processes (for instance BAU). Moving to regenerative solutions hence requires a perpetual reinvention, a profound problem comprehension and information to reach really long-term benefits. This is known as “theory of dynamic capability”. From the cognitive perspective, in their recent academic article Mohaghegh, M., & Größler (Mohaghegh, M., & Größler, A. (2022). Exploring organizational problem-solving modes: a dynamic capabilities approach. Management Decision, 60(1), 254–277.), A. describe the “jumping to solution” behavioral attitude as one that “fails to bring sustainable outcomes”. A major finding of their work that studied at the same time the individual and the organizational mechanisms, is that “Intuitive Problem Solving” (Refers to behavioral attitudes, when faced with a given problem, requiring “self-cognition”; it involves intuition, shortcuts and/or heuristic reasoning) is not adapted to global challenges like the “complex problems at potentially high cost and risk” for organizations. Based on the “Systematic Problem Solving” approach, decision-makers are more likely to succeed to avoid systemic issues.
Even if described as “disruptive”, “BAU” solutions may not be sufficient because they aren’t centered on systemic issues. In Addition, willingness to create new business opportunities may not guarantee their universalism (i.e externalities prevention).
Let’s compare the high valuation of “risk and cost” with asset management tools (stock exchange field). One widespread key indicator is the “Maximum Drawdown (MDD)”. It consists of evaluating the most important loss considering the lowest known value of a financial portfolio. Portfolio managers use it because of the disadvantage of fluctuating financial value: The “MDD” allows for a comparison of portfolios with a focus on capital preservation.
The tool brings a major analytical bias due to the non-extrapolation of the risk incurred: there is no prediction of extreme situations, yet in the realm of possibility, which would encourage the financial value to exceed its known maxima (or minima). This is recognized as the only discriminating approach in a decision-making context.
Based on this perception of the risks of mental orientation, many actors understand, from the inside, that they must change and create new visions. Recently, influential people expressed their thoughts: “We need a new definition of business climate leadership” (Drawdown Labs — Web article “Drawdown Labs year in review: accelerating the moment of drawdown”, by Drawdown Labs team — december 22, 2021 — https://drawdown.org/news/insights/drawdown-labs-year-in-review-accelerating-the-moment-of-drawdown). The economist SACHS J. said “The world is in the grips of older people with older ideas. And it’s time to move on with young people using new approaches and technologies.” while addressing the “Young Global Changers” (Talk at the Young Global Changers Recoupling Award at the Global Solutions Summit, Berlin, 28–29 March 2022 — https://www.global-solutions-initiative.org/). In Europe, the notorious belgium professor COLMANT B. recently declared he was “[…] worried, because we are in front of the silences which precede the great perils”. (Article “Le capitalisme néolibéral n’est plus compatible avec le défi climatique” by COLMANT B. journal La Libre — “Carte Blanche” — August the 7th 2022 — https://www.lalibre.be/debats/opinions/2022/08/07/le-capitalisme-neoliberal-nest-plus-compatible-avec-le-defi-climatique-INNZVTOFBRHUHMHJD2ZQKDA3WA/)
5). “Great Reset” or “Great Resign” ?
Mostly, our efforts are dedicated to reach an equilibrium arising from concrete existing constraints, between regulatory pressures, markets’ realities, and every-day issues. Through the iterative work to build the “Systemic Crisis Domino”, we recognize the multitude and scope of the crises we will face, even at the individual level (see appendix “French Living Paradygm”).
The “Great Reset” ideas (proposal of “World Forum”, Davos) will need lots of resources and energy, microchips, batteries, often coming from China and Taiwan. This means dependence from a country and from supply chains which have already shown their limits and systemic risks (Covid-confinements, Ever Given, Ukraine war, energy prices, …). How can they even start to build guaranteed business continuity for the shareholders ? Talents feel that, and want to change from their “bullshit jobs”. Personal events that we all go through are accelerating that too. Resigning is the first step to personal questioning, more coherence in our lives, and a step to more “ikigai” jobs. (A japanese concept for individual well being at work https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ikigai)
As we cruise in an end-of-the-world atmosphere, we are witnessing two new kind of behaviors. We can truly see the very best and the very worse.
The perspective of “Meta Life Project” or individual auto-transformation. As individuals, we recognize our partial contribution to the emergence of these crises and to the solutions related to them. This brings us many dilemmas, and as many academic case studies (psychology, socio-economics, marketing, management). Thus, the paths towards the realization of a pro-environmental “Meta-Life Project” (see appendix — Carrington, M. J., Neville, B., & Canniford, R. (2015). Unmanageable multiplicity: consumer transformation towards moral self coherence. European Journal of Marketing) represent a long process for individuals. Herein lies part of the challenge: how to accelerate the transformation in a systemic way?
Humble visionary pioneers, who probably came here and now on this planet to participate in this unique event — global mutation and consciousness shift. They create, often alone, new approaches, with new and updated values, exploring new paradigms and models, with very little resources but with incredible heart and creativity, with genuine ethics and spiritual inspirations — on one side. There are lots of them, but mostly under the radar.
Crooks, corrupts and plunderers, hackers, opportunists, raiders. Most of them white collars, in IT, business and politics, or collapso-guru-business, on the other side. Clearly yes, it is big business. A confused and desperate world is an ideal playground for negative speculation, raids, manipulation and plundering. There are lots of them too. Its easy to find them : follow the money… who is getting rich in these times ?
Everyone of us has to choose a side. Today, it is black or white. Difficult to stay in gray zones. Coherence and ethics are an energy which is truly tangible. Difficult to hide or cheat on intentions. It is true for individuals, for companies, for territorial politics, for academics and even for media or non-profits. (1) Choose to bring the best of yourself to the world, letting go whatever beliefs, belongings, patterns, neurotics — or — (2) holding on to whatever makes you believe the world is going to become like before — whilst complaining, blaming others, whining, and dreaming of a better life.
We are captured in a giant spinning centrifuge, projecting us in extremes. And you, what are you up to ?
6). Make it fun, desirable and profitable.
The future should be fun, desirable and profitable, instead of boring, anxiety-provoking and incurring colossal costs, debts and losses. Frightening people will only create depressions and revolutionaries who will “fight against”, whereas inspiring positively is creating changemakers, entrepreneurs, innovation, progress and prosperity.
Also, the first strategy creates new guru’s (collapsologues, activists blaming others), alimenting fears and oppositions, provoking suicides and mental disruptions. Emotionally, they provoke exactly the opposite than what we need: powerful co-entrepreneurs and changemakers.
Elisabeth Kubler-Ross (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_stages_of_grief) : We collectively will have to mourn an old world as well. As a reminder, here are the 5 stages. You will easily recognize where you are situated :
- Denial — The first reaction is denial. In this stage, individuals believe the diagnosis is somehow mistaken, and cling to a false, preferable reality.
- Anger — When the individual recognizes that denial cannot continue, they become frustrated, especially at proximate individuals. Certain psychological responses of a person undergoing this phase would be: “Why me? It’s not fair!”; “How can this happen to me?”; “Who is to blame?”.
- Bargaining — The third stage involves the hope that the individual can avoid a cause of grief. Usually, the negotiation for an extended life is made in exchange for a reformed lifestyle. People facing less serious trauma can bargain or seek compromise. Find “a way around” the suffering provoked by the loss.
- Depression — “I’m so sad, why bother with anything?”; “I’m going to die soon, so what’s the point?”; “I miss my loved one; why go on?”
During the fourth stage, the individual despairs at the recognition of their mortality. - Acceptance — “It’s going to be okay. Lets get over it”; “I can’t fight it; I may as well prepare for it.”
In this last stage, individuals embrace mortality or inevitable future, or that of a loved one, or other tragic event.
and lets add for the road, as a “bonus” :
- Action, together, adaptation. So you can get out of fear of collective incompetence facing those multiple hypercomplex challenges, and in trust of your own capacity for local positive, regenerative, local action. True change will always start from the bottom, from ourselves. In the best case, the “leaders” can only nudge and encourage. Anyway, we can see the incompetence of those “leaders” with the naked eye. True change will not come from our leaders, but from us on the field.
Many examples of community initiatives for this transition exist to illustrate it. Some remarkable undertakings dedicated to specific areas: sustainable urbanization, environmental awareness, place of art, education, food (“Transition Towns” in the United Kingdom, and “Emergence” with the Volcano Theater Company in Wales) but too few actually connect these issues with economy and business.
The petroleum shocks of the 70-ties also created a run for energy savings and a large bunch of opportunities for new energy sources (“chasse au gaspi”, “bison futé”, speed limits leading to reduction of mortality as secondary effects, …).
Our multiple crises are actually the solution, not the problems. It all depends on how we look at it and handle them. Step by step, inefficient parts of the system are put in checkmate, pointing to new opportunities triggering our entrepreneurial creativity. As there would be a mega-supra-conspiracy to make us change: as we will never spontaneously change behavior, situations oblige us to. And it is exactly the same for us as individuals — not daring to change jobs or situations — and are obliged by life events… Clusters of new emerging potentials are made visible. We can sense it, feel it, and measure it.
This is actually great news ! On one side we see an implosion of a destructive, extractive system, producing lots of negative effects on people, planet and economy, and on the other side, new business areas open up, and our new earth thus is emerging, in scattered places.
The greater importance of a process-driven framework and systemic multisolutions in a context of profound change in our society lies in its validity beyond trends, marketing influence, policies and socio-economical context, but also beyond other societies transformations that may take decades (according to sociologist Norbert Elias). Moreover, its development according to periods of crisis or prosperity, wealth or poverty of the population will have important consequences on the issues.
Business as usual, is not coming back to 2019, but to 1939, going back to “survival mode”. We have to scan the future, and detect opportunities. Progress resides in systemic understanding, sharing and solving approaches.
A visionary leader will have to do two things at the same time: (1) manage decline, multiple hypercomplex crises, (2) facilitate emergence of the new, innovate, re-invent business models and society models. This is something he or she will need help for, from us, from the changemakers on the field.
B- Shocks and emergent economic spaces for regeneration
Multiple shocks lead to multiple innovations. Following the first law of thermodynamics, “The energy gained (or lost) by a system is equal to the energy lost (or gained) by its surroundings.”
With equal energy, new paradigms are emerging from those gradual collapses. Up to us to anticipate and plug into them.
Regeneration has started in a decaying society. It starts to be visible. And, it works. It is regenerative, it is performant, it is profitable, and it makes us happy.
Regeneration will have to be done on two levels at the same time: (1) people (2) environment. And this, without spending billions — we do not have them — but with a new, re-invented performance: iterative, multi-cash-flow models.
Here are the 8 “phases” of mutation, of collapse/decline, and emergence:
1). Regenerate Environment & Good Food autonomy
Degradation of biotopes, massive deforestation with direct impact on climate change and drought, collapse of biodiversity, food prices, toxic hazards, food quality scandals, industrial food crises, general unsustainability of forestry, agriculture and industries, disruption of supply chains, crop failures, soil exhaustion, famines, climate occurrences, over-subsidized agriculture, lower quality of food.
This all calls for: “Good Food, Regenerative Agriculture, reforestation and enriching biotopes”. Local, bio, less meat, soil regeneration, fruits & vegs, veganing, circular, low waste, healthy cooking, slow food, permaculture, agroforestry, carbon harnessing … Good Food, bio agriculture, agroforestry. It has started with the first big scandals in the food industry and massive deforestation, in the 90-ties. It led to lots of new business in food, environment, in private and public initiatives, even up to cooking tv programs of all kinds, and ecotourism everywhere on the planet. Reforestation with carbon credits and a new way also of business models to regenerate.
2). Multiple Energies — Local Energy production, Multimodal mobility
Energy prices, energy blackouts, pollution, hazards, hacking, CO2 impact, call for: “Multiple Energies” and smart mobility.
Solar, wind, biomass, waste, tides, local/decentralized smart grids, pellets, multiple innovations, Carbon Credit projects, massive energy savings of course, multiple local energy production & alternatives, and efficient multimodal and shared mobility.
Especially since the Ukraine war, with rising energy prices, these new opportunities are emerging. Lots of pioneering businesses are booming thanks to that. Sharing and savings will be an absolute must. A better use of resources is an absolute must have, as a start.
3). Multifunctional Buildings — Eco-co-housing, smart renovation
Price of energy and real estate, unsustainability, renovation costs facing regulations, jobs changing fast, high tech unreliable (hacks), variable needs of mono-families & elderly, condo bankruptcies, squats, unhealthy habitat, public real estate quickly deteriorating, call for: “Multifunctional Systemic and Productive Buildings, Eco-co-Living”
Eco-housing, low cost, low tech, zero energy, co-…, flexible, multiple, diversity, new ways of life, low tech, resilience & regeneration islands, fully multifunctional, zero waste, systemic productive buildings, productive buildings, eco-co-living, smart multi stakeholder and multifunctional public real estate renovation. This is a major challenge because real estate is the biggest chunk in people’s budget, but also in public budgets, especially in the maintenance and energy consumptions. This subject is in checkmate because we do not have the budget, the time, neither the human resources to tackle these massive renovations before 2030, neither before 2050 or even 2100. In the public services, they do not even have people to make the inventories and engineering of what is necessary to make those sustainable ! We will need, again, to innovate in legal, functionalities, property modes, use, living modes,… lots of room for innovation. And, this is big business for the changemakers !
4). Educate Healthy Jobs — Human regeneration, empowering job
Talent war, buying power going down, absenteeism, mental disorders, social unrest, losing trust, aging, anxiety and fears, call for: “Healthy Jobs and continuous virtuous education”.
Ikigai, flexible, agile, adaptative, empowering, fun, diverse, nextgen, slow entrepreneurship, purpose, thriving, “blue zones” lifestyle, natural healthcare, personal development, regenerative multisolutions, coaching in all dimensions, conscious and aware “wise leadership”. Nextgen skills, experiential training, regenerative education and human regeneration, health, personal development. It all fits into human regeneration, empowerment, and consciousness development. The quality of the jobs created will follow automatically. And of course, this dimension is the core dimension for societal change. We will build tomorrow’s world only with those willing, healthy, wise and humble people, serving common thriving. Not with short term, ill, stressed or egoistic people.
5). Smart Resources — Local waste, C2C, water, resource management
Wars for resources, water shortages, war for minerals and ecosystem destruction, hyper-waste, fossil fuels, acceleration of needs, ask for: “Smart Resources “
Urban mining, discernment on what and where to dig, circular economy 2.0, knowledge center on hyper-efficiency, smart recycling, eco-design, C2C, local waste treatment, water and resources management, upcycling. We will enable serious transition only with ways to use less for more results. We will need the creativity of engineers and entrepreneurs-changemakers from all over the world for that. They exist, methods and approaches exist, but too often buried, blocked, or mocked. Let’s find them and empower them ! So we can truly get to the next level. Millions of businesses and jobs are waiting, ready to start.
6). Multiple Economies and currencies
Economic collapse, hyper-debt, corporate and public bankruptcies, losing trust, inflation, recession, stagflation, stock crash, poverty, aging, massive plundering and emerging maffia’s, call for: “Multiple economic spaces & Currencies”.
SDR, national-, regional-, city-, and/or community currencies, crypto’s, barter, co/sharing everything, platform economies, massive saving and resources sharing, consumption profile change, … After we have mourned our “old accumulation-based and extractive capitalist system”, we can open the drawers and take out those new models. They exist, nothing to reinvent. Coalize, and test them in small Regeneration Islands, together. Show it works, show off, and inspire to multiply.
7). Low Tech World — Low cost smart tech
Hacking, energy disruptions and energy prices, war for resources, supply chains disrupted, CO2 emission regulations, technical complexity and disruptions, unresilient tech, call for a: “Low Tech World”. Smart cities or buildings become very very dumb with power cuts. Same with too much tech in buildings. Domotics. “Dom” means “dumb” in dutch. We have to revisit our whole approach to tech. The intention behind it. Is it the next way to make a billion, or the next chapter of world industry, offering true progress to people ? Will it make us smarter, more performant, resilient, autonomous and regenerative, or will it make us dumber and more dependant ?
Local materials, low cost, inspired from ancient wisdom, new resilience, repairable, pragmatic innovation, Jugaad, P2P everything, commons, low tech innovation, Low Tech labs, … There are — again — lots of initiatives and technologies which answer those requirements. They exist, nothing to reinvent. Find and test them in small Regeneration Islands. Show it works, show off with your results, inspire and multiply.
8). Art of Managing & Governing, culture, art
Losing trust in politics, social unrest, massive fears and plundering, mass manipulation, chaos and disorder, maffias, famines, wars, massive new regulations and mass control, checkmate of national/supranational politics on transition and governance, stock crash, massive migrations, neighbor theft, less kids and eldering demography, call for a: “New Art of Managing & Governing”. Democracies, management styles, are in crises. They do not work as wanted, they are not answering the challenges of the moment as required. The results are not good. Also, the cultural roots, artistic creativity, are not considered beyond entertainment, where they are precisely the source of deep renewal. It has been seen everywhere after collapses, the artists and “cultural creatives” are the source of emergence of the new.
Citizen participation, employee shareholders, local resilience communities, self-organized communities, emergent social models, new solidarity, diversity that works, new commons, co-everything, P2P everything, transversality, collective intelligence, new and visionary political organization, power of culture, art, diversity, creativity, innovation, empowering and inspiring storytelling. New connections have to be made, experiments, cultural and artistic expressions of the “new world’” we want to build. get them into the game. They have been “put on hold” for too long (covid restrictions). They are key to unleashing creativity for the rest of us !
C- Macro-scope: a projected scenario
If we refer to Ph D COLMANT B., “Depuis des années, nous savons que le paroxysme des déséquilibres climatiques, environnementaux, migratoires, sociaux, etc. se situe en 2030 au plus tard”. Modern society acknowledge the emergence of crisis without accepting the basic solutions to prevent them, and is missing the macro-scope, to identify ripple effects and convergences. These projections and data could be refined by data scientists and federal planning offices (lets do it for your country).
If we browse a vertical line along the years, naturally we can see which fundamentals converge with which ones. This allows us to refine scenarios. For example, this winter we will have convergence with food cost and disruptions, and energy issues. It will be followed (probably fast), by loss of trust in politics, leading to social unrest. Etc…
<First mapping on 8 years : “forecasting the obvious” (illustration form JACQUOT K.>
D- Unity With Maximum Differentiation
Extractive institutions, such as markets and states, that are involved in the competition with other players in the peer polity, tend to overuse their resources. These entities then dissolve, or are otherwise disaggregated, often taken over by other entities, but also seem to create a counter-institution, the commons, expression a more localized mutualization, often created and stimulated by spiritual reform movements, which link the local population to spiritual reformers (advocates of new forms of human consciousness, that create new bonds). (https://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Our_Next_Civilization_Will_Not_Be_Based_on_Unity_Without_Division,_Nor_On_Division_Without_Unity,_But_On_Unity_With_Maximum_Differentiation)
The reason is that capitalism functioned at the global level, and therefore, exploited and over-used frontier regions, moving from one to another, and thereby hiding the underlying cycle of exhaustion, which has now reached a global level. What this means, is that we need a new human order, in which this very pulsation is abolished.
Indeed, the frontiers are now exhausted, and we are facing a global ecological and resource over-reach. This makes it necessary to start thinking not just about local reactions, but about global counter-institutions, hence, our proposals for global magisteria of the commons, global counter-institutions that can protect from the more extractive global international state-derived institutions, and trans-national capital. The system we propose, and which is already emergent, is cosmo-localism, which combines the best of the two binding elements of human society, i.e. both the bonds of territorial localism, the joint solidarity for the health of the ecosystem close at hand, and the bonds of ideational virtuality, the global open source communities of the new and digitally nomad knowledge guilds. In this scenario, nations become facilitating community-centric state forms, that create the necessary legal frameworks, to make such transitions possible.
However, every time such a transcendence into higher unity and more differentiation was needed, a huge danger lurked: that of authoritarian ‘gnosticism’. These are social movements that bind around the conviction that they possess the truth, and that want to organize the whole society around that new single truth. In other words, rather than obtain higher unity through more differentiation, they want to eliminate that diversity, around a new single interpretation, something we could call ‘interpretative absolutism’ and which is right now the object of many conflicts in public institutions that are subjected to this pressure to conform.
Our society thus has a choice to move to a higher unity with more differentiation, or to move to forms of authoritarian unity that limit differentiation, and diminish the complexity that comes from individuation.
This is why the defense of media pluralism, of free speech, of the right to make a living and express oneself, are worth defending. They are not just luxuries that can be discarded, but necessary conditions to be able to achieve a higher unity for humankind, that is not based on abolishing differentiation.
Is there something that can help us in doing this? In our opinion, this is where commoning comes in. Above and beyond any local territorial binding element, based on localization and learning to live within our regional planetary boundaries; beyond local, regional, national and even creed communities, which cannot bind us at the global level, there is the unity that comes from commoning, the joint and free ‘love’ of a common object, that binds us to common ideational and pragmatic projects that are linked to the necessary regeneration and healing of the planet. Common projects that are not just local, but global, cosmo-local to be precise.
Thus the vision that we present is a vision that is inherently cosmo-local, local and universal at the same time. Local, as we work with our local communities to restore and regenerate that part of the planet that is closest to use physically, but ‘cosmic’, as we share with our digital peers through the globe, the common knowledge that is equally needed to solve. Such a cosmo-local cooperation only works if we consider all human beings as equipotential contributors, independently of their biological markers or various group memberships. It is incompatible with any form of racialized hierarchy and segregation by groups. Predistribution of value in the commons can only be based on contributions, all contributions, with no judgment on the other aspects of the participating humans. Once we accept this, we can combine high levels of multiplicity, free thought and differentiation, and a ideational binding around cosmo-local regenerative activities, which give an extra layer of sociality and meaning, as necessary ingredient for the next phase of human civilization (which could very well be a post-civilization order, since it overturns the spatio-temporal logic that was inaugurated by the cycle that started with Sumer.)
But the bottom line remains: “What can we do, within our range of influence, on the field, ourselves (without waiting for anyone else doing the job for us) ?”
This is where we suggest : coalize with preferred communities, question your values and priorities, learn from the world’s best-in-class, and build your “Regeneration Island”, small or large. Iterate learnings, share your results, inspire and enlarge your island. Include — homeopathically — some public services and corporations, and leverage the best-of your results.
Conclusion
What is there “to save” ?
Multiple shocks are lined up, at a speed never seen in human history. Step-by-step structures are imploding, obliging us to re-invent societal and economical functionalities. One after the other, at high speed. Human creativity starts when obligation is there for survival reasons. We have all the ingredients of “labor contractions” to give birth to a new society, and “New Earth”. All these convergence shocks are collective “contractions”. They hurt, yes. But they are absolutely necessary for our society to be re-born.
Our job is a “mid-wife” assisting the mother. Reassuring, facilitating, explaining, showing how-to. Professionally and informed.
In fact, regeneration can find answers through a new globalization. We are calling for governance to steer the success of the goals to be achieved, a global citizenship and co-entrepreneurship for regeneration. In “protected” islands, territories, owned and/or piloted by humble, open, willing, collaborative and wise people.
One message: question your values and priorities, coalize with your preferred community (wherever in the world), learn from the world’s best-in-class changemakers, participate in building your “Regeneration Island”, small or large. Collaborate with citizen groups, companies, and local administrations and universities. Iterate learnings, share your failures and results, inspire and enlarge your regeneration island. Include — homeopathically — some public services and corporations, and leverage the best-of your results to the rest of the world who by that time could have woken up from their lobotomizing dependence. Let’s make it fun, performant, and profitable for all.
This is the most exciting era in known history.
Let’s get to work. Together.
Authors:
Kevin Jacquot
Eugénie Bouillet
Luc Paré
Prof. Michel A. de Kemmeter
APPENDIX 1 — French Living Paradygm
Embedded in the “Systemic Crisis Domino” (see former chapter “Illustration”) a focus on certainty crisis arising from common modern way of life: example of French Living Paradygm concept by JACQUOT K. (designed with 7vortex tool available on https://www.7vortex.com/)
APPENDIX 2 : Meta Life Progress theory
Conceptualization about “MTL” alignment, that confronts one’s personal life projects.
According to Carrington, M. J., Neville, B., & Canniford, R, “Meta-Life-Project” (Carrington, M. J., Neville, B., & Canniford, R. (2015). Unmanageable multiplicity: consumer transformation towards moral self coherence. European Journal of Marketing.) is a whole of awakening and alignment processes. Some green and ethical consumers, that used to live as the mainstream, has already operated individually and progressively profound changes with their habits and behavior to struggle their proper all-day-life impacts, in accordance with their final “dominant moral self”.
APPENDIX 3 — Spiral Dynamics illustration
Reaching the top of the Spiral Dynamic represents a fantastic challenge for our societies. (Don Edwouard Beck, Christopher C. Cowan (2013) Spiral Dynamics: Leadership, Werte und Wandel — J. Kamphausen Verlag -ISBN: 9783899017502 — Illustrations: https://www.memenomics.com / https://www.memenomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/SD-model-WIE.pdf)
