How to make transition work… 3 concrete business cases

(Wise paper 8)

by Luc Paré & Michel de Kemmeter, Club of Brussels

Paradigm shift of industries are difficult. There is a trial-and-error process going on since a few decades in some of them. We will study 3 of them here, and suggest a strong vision to restructure those, in coherent and performant ways — so to end up faster, in a new way to address those functionalities: systemic, regenerative, job-creating, economically performant, environmentally positive.

1. Mobility & Logistics

The Challenges of the Industry

• CO2 Impact: Transportation contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions globally.
• Traffic Jams: Urban congestion wastes time and fuel while worsening air quality.
• Resource Extraction: Dependence on rare minerals (e.g., lithium for batteries) often causes social and environmental issues in developing nations.

What Is Tried as New “Sustainable” Models

• Car-sharing programs.
• [Electric] scooters and bikes.
• Electrification of vehicle fleets.
• Autonomous delivery systems.

Negative Effects of These Experiments

• Dishonesty and misuse in shared vehicle programs diminish trust.
• Electric vehicle production strains the supply chain for rare-earth materials.
• Micromobility (e-scooters) sometimes leads to improper usage and waste.

What Really Works

• Multimodal Operations: Integration of multiple forms of transportation (bike-train combos, car-train systems).
• Delivery Optimization: Pooling deliveries through relay points.
• Digital Solutions: Virtual meetings to replace physical commutes.
• Mutualization of Resources: Combining logistics and passenger transport (e.g., shared vans for people and parcels).

Extrapolate Ecosystem Solutions

• Scale bike-train or car-train combinations with better infrastructure.
• Incentivize employers to reduce commuting through remote work policies.
• Foster collaborations between public transit and shared mobility companies.
• Support hyper-local distribution networks powered by electric fleets.
• Reduce mobility needs by combining different activities, bring parcels for neighbors, etc..

2. Agriculture & Food

The Challenges of the Industry

• Overreliance on subsidies and industrial buyers.
• Heavy use of chemicals damaging ecosystems.
• Mounting debt burdens on small-scale farmers.
• Soil degradation and biodiversity loss.
• Competition from low regulations markets actors.

What Is Tried as New “Sustainable” Models

• Organic and regenerative agriculture.
• Local supply chains and farm-to-table initiatives.
• Permaculture.
• Regenerative agriculture.
• Auto production.

Negative Effects of These Experiments

• Labor exploitation in some organic farms.
• Long distance transportation of industrial organic production.
• Low revenue for organic local procuders.
• Low scalability of permaculture practices.
• Challenges in distribution for small-scale farms.
• Seasonal variability affecting income stability.

What Really Works

• Diversified Agro-Systems: Multiple income streams, such as combining farming with eco-tourism or direct-to-consumer sales.
• Resource Pooling: Farmers sharing equipment and labor pools.
• Cutting Middlemen: Direct sales models (e.g., pre-sales subscriptions for guaranteed revenue).
• Circular Agriculture: Using waste as biochemicals or compost.
• Propose niche products with higher margins.

Extrapolate Ecosystem Solutions

• Connect small producers with larger logistics systems for efficient distribution.
• Develop platforms for resource-sharing among farmers.
• Facilitate micro-loans for regenerative projects with proven impacts.

3. Waste Treatment

The Challenges of the Industry

• Excessive landfill usage squanders resources and contaminates ecosystems.
• Textile waste flooding global markets, especially in the Global South.
• High CO2 emissions from incineration processes, especially for organics.

What Is Tried as New “Sustainable” Models

• Recycling and upcycling.
• Methanization for organic waste management.
• Eco-design for repairable and reusable products.
• Material bio-sourcing.

Negative Effects of These Experiments

• Recycling systems are often inefficient or fail to handle mixed materials effectively.
• Upcycling remains niche and hard to scale.
• Methanization processes sometimes release unintended emissions or waste residue.

What Really Works

• Fiber Recycling: Innovations in textile recycling that reclaim raw materials.
• Circular Production: Using waste from one industry as input for another (e.g., plastics into construction materials).
• Community-Based Models: Localized waste management hubs encouraging repair and reuse.

Extrapolate Ecosystem Solutions

• Foster global eco-design standards, mandating repairability in consumer goods.
• Scale circular business models with incentives for industries using recycled inputs.
• Link waste treatment to local renewable energy production (e.g., biomass plants).

By combining these approaches with systemic thinking and policy incentives, industries can transition toward sustainable, scalable solutions that not only address individual problems but also rebuild interconnected ecosystems.

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Keys to Making Industrial Paradigm Shifts Work for Real: A Scientific and Practical Framework

Industrial transformations are at the heart of societal progress, yet the urgency of today’s challenges — climate change, resource depletion, and inequality — demands not just incremental change, but systemic shifts. Here, we explore the factors critical to driving industrial paradigm shifts, integrating scientific principles and concrete examples for real-world application.

1. Behavioral Change: The Catalyst for Transformation

Scientific Basis

Behavioral science reveals that habits and decision-making, when aligned with systemic goals, can unlock massive potential for industrial shifts. Social norms, incentives, and choice architecture are key levers. For example:

• The Theory of Planned Behavior explains how attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived control influence behavior, which is essential for fostering sustainable practices.
• Behavioral economics highlights how small “nudges” can drive large-scale behavior shifts, such as defaults for green energy subscriptions.

Concrete Examples

• Mobility: Cities like Copenhagen incentivize cycling through bike-friendly infrastructure, resulting in over 40% of commutes being bike-based.
• Energy Efficiency: Programs like the “Energy Star” labeling system nudge consumers toward energy-efficient appliances, saving billions in energy costs annually, up to 40% of energy cuts.
• Waste Management: Pay-as-you-throw schemes, such as in South Korea, encourage households to reduce waste, leading to significant decreases in landfill use. Consumer behaviour, ‘zero waste’, also ca, lead up to 90% reduction in waste production.

2. Ecosystem Thinking: A Multidimensional Approach

Scientific Basis

Industries operate within complex systems where interconnectedness matters. Systems theory highlights the need for diversified, adaptive, and decentralized solutions to build resilience. Monolithic solutions often fail under stress, while ecosystem solutions thrive on redundancy and diversity. Diversity of ‘solution packs’ fill-in multiple needs for multiple situations. It is ‘complex solution management’.

Concrete Examples

• Energy Transition: Germany’s “Energiewende” combines wind, solar, methane, and community-owned energy cooperatives to decentralize and diversify energy production.
• Food Systems: Agroecological practices like crop rotation and intercropping mimic natural ecosystems, increasing resilience to climate variability.
• Waste Management: The circular economy model, seen in companies like Patagonia (recycling clothing) and IKEA (reusing materials), Decathlon or Kalundborg creates value from waste.

3. Recognizing and Harnessing Societal Paradigm Shifts

Scientific Basis

Society’s paradigms evolve through cultural, technological, and economic transitions. Adapting industrial functions to align with these shifts ensures relevance and longevity. The Diffusion of Innovations Theory explains how innovations spread across societal groups.

Concrete Examples

• Healthcare: The paradigm is shifting from reactive care to preventive care. Wearables like Fitbit and telehealth platforms educate and engage individuals in managing their health proactively.
• Mobility: From ownership to access — Uber/Bolt, car-sharing, and multimodal apps like Moovit are reshaping transportation as a service.
• Waste Management: “Zero-waste” movements or local waste transformation emphasize redesigning products and processes for circularity.

4. Empowering Individuals for Systemic Change

Scientific Basis

Leadership and collaboration are critical. Studies in organizational behavior show that teams with high psychological safety and empowered individuals outperform those with rigid hierarchies. Self-determination theory highlights the importance of autonomy, competence, and relatedness in driving motivation.

Concrete Examples

• Permaculture Farming: Community-driven projects like Aurel and Axel’s (mutualized resources and pre-sales models) empower local farmers to reclaim economic agency while regenerating ecosystems.
• Urban Planning: Citizen-led initiatives, like in Ghent, ex. participatory budgeting for green spaces and shared solutions, give communities ownership over change.
• Waste Treatment: Organizations like Precious Plastic empower individuals to create recycling systems in their neighborhoods.

5. Functional Innovation: Redefining Industry Roles

Scientific Basis

‘New entrants’ often disrupt industries by redefining core functions. Schumpeter’s creative destruction explains how innovations displace outdated models, leading to economic progress. Kropotine also bring part of the answers with peer to peer collaboration and resource mutualisation.

Concrete Examples

• Mobility: Uber leveraged digital platforms to turn taxis into a decentralized service, reshaping the industry.
• Food Systems: Local food co-ops, such as La Louve in Paris, replace industrial supply chains with direct producer-consumer relationships.
• Waste Management: TerraCycle introduced recycling-as-a-service, tackling hard-to-recycle materials with innovative programs.

6. Scaling Education and Experiential Learning

Scientific Basis

Experiential learning theory underscores the power of hands-on experience in driving deep understanding and adaptive problem-solving. Education must reflect the complexity and interdependence of modern challenges.

Concrete Examples

• Agriculture: Training programs like the Savory Institute’s holistic management courses teach farmers sustainable land-use practices.
• Mobility: Bike-sharing schemes coupled with safety education programs boost adoption rates in cities like Amsterdam.
• Waste Management: DIY upcycling workshops empower individuals to transform waste into usable goods, fostering circular economy principles.

Extrapolated Ecosystem ‘Solution Packs’

No Transport Scenarios

• Relay Deliveries: Platforms like Boxed or Instacart minimize logistics emissions by consolidating deliveries.
• Virtual Meetings: Tools like Zoom or Teams reduce travel needs without compromising productivity.

Integrated Mobility

• Multimodal systems: Combining electric scooters, public transport, and shared vehicles (e.g., Lime + subway) to optimize urban movement.

Food Networks

• Permaculture ecosystems: Co-locating honey production, vegetable farming, and agroforestry to maximize land efficiency.

Circular Waste Management

• Industrial symbiosis: Sharing byproducts across industries, like heat recovery in Denmark’s Kalundborg Eco-Industrial Park.

Conclusion: From Complexity to Coherence

Making industrial paradigm shifts work for real requires a confluence of behavioral science, ecosystem thinking, societal alignment, and empowered leadership. The future of industries lies in their ability to integrate innovation into systemic, decentralized, and participatory frameworks. Only by embracing complexity and fostering adaptive ecosystems can we achieve the transformations needed for a sustainable and equitable future.

“When a complex system is far from equilibrium, small islands of coherence in a sea of chaos have the capacity to shift the entire system to a higher order.” Ilya Prigogine, Nobel Prize-winning chemist